Green Bay, Wisconsin – Just six months into his tenure as Green Bay Packers president and CEO, Ed Policy faces what could be the most consequential decision of his early leadership: whether to extend head coach Matt LaFleur’s contract or let one of the NFL’s winningest young coaches potentially walk away.

And according to league insiders, it’s far more complicated than anyone expected.

The LaFleur Paradox: Great Record, No Ring

Matt LaFleur’s regular-season resume is virtually unassailable. Since taking over in 2019, he’s compiled a 76-38-1 record (.664 winning percentage), making him the third-most successful head coach in Packers history. His 67 wins through his first 100 games are tied for the second-most by any NFL head coach over the last 40 seasons, trailing only George Seifert.

But here’s the problem that’s keeping Policy up at night: LaFleur has never won more than one playoff game in any single season, posting a 3-5 postseason record. For a franchise that’s been to the playoffs five times in six years under LaFleur, the lack of deep playoff runs is glaring.

The breaking point may have come this season. After scoring 30-plus points in five straight games to reach 11-4, the Packers offense completely collapsed down the stretch, scoring just 10 points at Minnesota, 13 against the Bears, and only 10 in a Wild Card playoff loss to Philadelphia.

Most damaging? The team was blown out 41-24 at home by a Baltimore Ravens team playing without Lamar Jackson, with Derrick Henry rushing for 216 yards and four touchdowns while the Packers went 1-5 in division games.

The Contract Complication

In 2026, both LaFleur and GM Brian Gutekunst will enter the final year of contract extensions they signed in 2022. While Gutekunst’s extension seems inevitable given his draft success with Jordan Love, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft, LaFleur’s situation is far messier.

LaFleur currently makes between $8-9 million per year, but the market has exploded for head coaches. Dan Campbell, Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, and Andy Reid all signed deals in 2025 worth significantly more. If Policy wants to keep LaFleur, he’ll need to offer $10-15 million annually.

But here’s the leverage problem: if Policy offers just a one-year extension, LaFleur will almost certainly reject it, knowing he could command far more on the open market. According to one agent, “If they’re offering one year, I would hold out for three and may agree to two”.

If LaFleur were available today, he would have a new job in less than a week. That’s how valued he is around the league despite his playoff struggles.

The Insider Warning

The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman dropped a bombshell after the Ravens loss: “I do think Ed Policy will have a tough decision to make if the Packers lose in the first round. Handful of factors to consider both for and against the head coach”.

That assessment proved prescient. The Packers did lose in the Wild Card round, and now Policy must weigh:

Arguments FOR extending LaFleur:

• Elite regular-season winning percentage
• Developed Jordan Love into a franchise QB
• Led the two youngest playoff teams in the NFL over the last 45 years
• Players love playing for him
• Continuity and stability

Arguments AGAINST extension:

• 3-5 playoff record with zero conference championship appearances
• Offensive collapse in biggest games
• Contract runs through 2026, no urgency from organization to extend
• Could franchise regress with massive salary increase?
• Packers haven’t reached Super Bowl under current structure

Policy’s Leadership Test

Policy assumed the CEO role in July 2025 after being unanimously elected by the board of directors, replacing Mark Murphy. In his introductory statement, Policy declared: “The Lombardi Trophy will always be our North Star”.

That statement now looms large. LaFleur has delivered everything except Lombardi Trophies. Is that enough?

LaFleur himself acknowledged the season-ending collapse, saying “It doesn’t feel good when you end like that. It felt choppy at the end of the year. Collectively, we have to be better”.

The question is whether “better” means giving LaFleur a massive extension or finding someone who can finally get the Packers over the playoff hump.

The Holmgren Precedent

If negotiations stall, Policy could let LaFleur shop the market and demand draft picks from teams who sign him, similar to when Mike Holmgren left for Seattle in 1999. It’s an option that would soften the blow of losing a successful coach while acquiring assets.

But that scenario would also signal that Policy believes the Packers can do better — a risky bet when LaFleur’s replacement might not match his regular-season success.

What Happens Next?

Policy has roughly one year to make his decision before LaFleur enters lame-duck status. The 2025-26 season will be crucial — both for LaFleur proving he can finally break through in the playoffs and for Policy evaluating whether his “North Star” goal is achievable with the current coach.

One thing is certain: this won’t be an easy call. LaFleur’s contract runs through 2026, and there has been no urgency from the organization to negotiate an extension. The silence speaks volumes.

For a new president trying to establish his leadership philosophy, keeping a coach with a .664 winning percentage who’s never won a conference title represents the ultimate risk-reward calculation.

Ed Policy’s honeymoon period is over. The Matt LaFleur decision will define his early tenure — and possibly the next decade of Packers football.